Can the Stock Market Predict the Presidential Race?
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The model's ability to identify changes in political parties that occupy the White House was supreme, as it was correct five of six times for an 83% success rate. The only time it incorrectly forecast a change in party was in 1956. The market's three-month decline of 7.7% did not cause the unseating of President Dwight Eisenhower by Adlai Stevenson, probably because everybody still liked Ike.
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