POLL-Malaysia Sept exports seen down 20.7 pct on yr

* What: Malaysia's September export data <MYEXP=ECI>

* When: Wednesday, Nov 4, 6:01 p.m. (1001 GMT)

* Outcome: Sept exports seen down 20.7 pct on year

* Export value increasing although headline figure lower

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 - Malaysia's exports in September probably fell 20.7 percent from a year earlier, but are expected to rise from August, a Reuters poll showed.

"The headline year-on-year number can be 'deceiving' due to base effects. Exports registered its second highest reading in September last year," said DBS economist Irvin Seah. "The truth is that recovery remains unabated as export value will continue to grind forward on the back of the steady improvement in the external environment."

The annual decline is expected to deepen from a 19.8 percent drop reported in August, when shipments eased 2 percent from July. The monthly change was not seasonally adjusted.

A Reuters poll of 12 economists forecast Sept imports <MYIMP=ECI> would fall by 17.5 percent from a year ago after a 18.6 percent drop in August.

The trade surplus <MYTRD=ECI> was projected to be 10 billion ringgit, above the 9.57 billion ringgit recorded in August. Forecasts for Malaysia's August exports and imports (percentage change from a year earlier) and trade balance (billions of ringgit):

Exports Imports Balance Maybank IB -19.6 -13.0 8.7

Standard Chartered -22.9 -18.3 9.2

ING -18.5 -17.0 11.2

HSBC -17.0 -18.0 12.7

IdeaGlobal -21.3 -19.5 10.8

Bank Islam -21.3 -15.9 9.0

Kenanga -20.7 -17.9 10.3

Action Economics -27.0 -22.5 8.5

CIMB -20.5 -18.0 10.5

DBS -20.6 -16.3 9.7

Citibank -20.1 -17.2 10.4

Affin Securities -21.5 -16.1 9.0 -------------------------------------------------------- Median -20.7 -17.5 10.0