POLL-S.Korea Oct exports to drop due to holiday; inflation up

* What: Sept industrial output; Oct trade and CPI

* When: Output at 0430 GMT Oct. 30; trade at 0100 GMT Nov. 1;

CPI at 0430 GMT Nov. 2

* Export fall seen steeper due to holiday

* Factory output growth to accelerate; inflation picking up

SEOUL, Oct 28 - South Korean exports in October probably fell more than the previous month because of a holiday, while inflation picked up, but the data are unlikely to affect expectations that interest rates will rise by early 2010, a Reuters poll showed.

Industrial output growth probably accelerated in September, according to the poll of 12 economists, adding to evidence of a fast recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

"Data (including) exports and consumer spending showed an overall recovery trend remains intact," said Lee Sung-kwon, chief economist at Shinhan Investment Corp.

Recent data including third quarter economic growth convinced markets that the central bank will raise the key policy rate from its record-low 2.0 percent by some time early next year, even as the government warned the recovery was not yet self-sustained.

The Bank of Korea has kept rates steady for eight months and next reviews its 7-day repurchase agreement rate <KROCRT=ECI> on Nov. 12.

Economists forecast exports in October to fall 11.9 percent from a year ago, compared with a revised 7.8 percent drop in September. But they pointed out that the numbers were skewed by a Chuseok thanksgiving holiday, which fell in October this year and in September last year, and said recovery in exports remained on track.

Overseas sales fell 20.9 percent in August and 21.9 percent in July, respectively, according to government data.

Consumer prices probably rose 2.4 percent from a year ago in October, faster than 2.2 percent in September, the poll showed.

Factory output in September is estimated to have risen by a seasonally adjusted 3.9 percent from August, and by 6.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain since July 2008, according to the poll.

That compared with a seasonally adjusted monthly fall of 1.2 percent and a 1.2 percent annual rise in August.

Forecasts for South Korea's September industrial production (percent change from):

PREV MONTH* YEAR EARLIER Number of forecasts 12 12 Median 3.9 6.4 Low 1.0 0.2 High 10.7 11.0 - - - -

Forecasts for South Korea's October exports and imports (percent change from year earlier):

EXPORTS IMPORTS Number of forecasts 7 7 Median -11.9 -15.9 Low -14.2 -19.2 High -4.3 -9.9 - - - -

Forecasts for South Korea's October consumer price index (percent change):

PREV MONTH YEAR AGO Number of forecasts 9 9 Median 0.1 2.4 Low -0.1 2.2 High 0.3 2.5