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UPDATE 2-German exports surge at fastest pace in nearly 3 yrs

Published: 06 Aug 2009 23:27:22 PST

* Exports rise at fastest pace since September 2006

* Trade surplus widens to 11.0 billion euros

BERLIN, Aug 7 - German exports surged in June at their fastest pace in nearly three years, gaining a much bigger-than-expected 7.0 percent on the month and adding to signs that Europe's largest economy is pulling out of recession.

The seasonally adjusted increase was the biggest since September 2006 and took the value of exports to 67.4 billion euros ($96.92 billion) from 63.0 billion in May, Federal Statistics Office figures showed on Friday.

"That's a strong signal from exports after the disappointments we've seen previously," said Citigroup economist Juergen Michels. "This means the German economy likely stabilised in the second quarter."

Economy Minister Karl-Theodor Guttenberg also said on Thursday that the economy held steady in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it contracted by 3.8 percent -- the most since reunification in 1990 -- as exports collapsed.

Imports rose by 6.8 percent to 56.4 billion euros in June, meaning the trade surplus grew to 11.0 billion euros from a revised 10.2 billion euros in May, the Office said.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the trade surplus would rise to 10.8 billion euros from a previously reported 10.3 billion in May. Imports were seen up 0.8 percent on the month and exports were expected to rise 1.1 percent.

The trade surplus in the second quarter was 5.7 billion euros higher than in the first three months of the year -- which should imply trade boosted growth in the April-June period.

"Foreign trade has boosted the economy again -- for the first time since the middle of last year. Hopefully exporters have now turned the corner," said Thorsten Polleit, an economist at Barclays Capital.

UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK

Friday's figures were the latest in a series of positive signals from the Germany economy. Official data released on Thursday showed manufacturing orders rose at their fastest pace in two years in June on strong foreign demand.

For some German companies the outlook is foggy, however.

Henkel <HNKG_p.DE>, the maker of Schwarzkopf hair products and Pattex glues, said on Wednesday its business would not get any worse in the third quarter but that it could not give a more specific 2009 outlook due to economic uncertainties.

Ulrike Kastens, economist at Sal. Oppenheim, said any rebound in Germany would likely be slow as the global economy on which its export-focused economy is heavily reliant is recovering only slowly.

"The intensity of the recession is fading, the worst is behind us in the first quarter. But things remain very bumpy and uncertain," Kastens said.

Polleit at Barclays Capital also struck a note of caution: "There may be a positive surprise in the second quarter. We may even see slight growth. That's not an upswing though, because the German economy is being sustained by economic programmes at home and abroad."


Source: Reuters

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