Buyer Community> Trade Intelligence> Trade Guide> POLL-Taiwan June export orders to drop 18 pct y/y, falls ease
Source: Reuters

POLL-Taiwan June export orders to drop 18 pct y/y, falls ease

Published: 20 Jul 2009 20:55:41 PST

* What/When: Taiwan June orders on Thurs, July 23 at 0800 GMT

* Outcome: Orders seen falling 17.9 pct y/y

* Fall would be smallest since October (vs May y/y -20.4%)

* Analysts see monthly growth for 4th straight month

* Demand from emerging markets improves

TAIPEI, July 21 - Taiwan's export orders in June likely fell 17.9 percent from a year earlier, the smallest decline since October, as demand from emerging markets improves, a Reuters poll showed.

Taiwan's orders, which indicate the strength of Asia exports and are a bellwether for global tech demand, probably grew 1.3 percent in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, said Ma Tieying, an economist from DBS.

Industrial output for June probably dropped 16.1 percent from a year earlier, which would also be the smallest fall since October, as global demand for Taiwan's products gradually picked up after months of restocking of inventory, the poll showed.

TSMC <2330.TW>, the world's biggest contract memory chip maker, said recently its June sales fell 9.6 percent from a year earlier but rose for the fourth straight month thanks to rebounding chip demand.

Forecasts for June export orders and industrial output (percentage change from a year earlier):

ORDERS OUTPUT

Chinatrust Commercial Bank -18 -18.4

Citigroup -19.0 -13.9

DBS -18.8 -17.1

Forecast Ltd -17.8 -15.2

KGI Securities -18.7 -16.0

Moody's economy.com -11.6 -14.7

Nomura International -16.2 -12.3

Masterlink Securities -17.04 -16.12

Sinopac Holdings -15.8 -17.4

Taiwan Securities -18.7 -17.0

------------------------------------------------

Median -17.9 -16.1

May -20.14 -18.31 > For Taiwan economic data diary and results............<ECONTW>

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