POLL-Tin in deficit in 2010, zinc nearing balance

SINGAPORE, July 15 - Analysts are calling for deficits in tin in 2010 and shrinking surpluses in copper, nickel, lead, zinc and aluminium, according to the latest semi-annual Reuters base metals poll.

Copper's market balance was seen at 400,000 tonnes in surplus in 2009 and 227,300 tonnes oversupplied in 2010, with a minority of forecasters calling for a market in deficit next year.

The surplus in aluminium in 2009 was seen between 746,000 and 2.5 million tonnes with the median forecast for 1.7 million tonnes, moderating to 695,100 tonnes in 2010.

Aluminium has been hard hit by the collapse in demand from the automotive and construction sectors, which have come under pressure during the financial crisis.

An overhang in production capacity, seen by some up towards 9 million tonnes, or nearly 20 percent of world capacity, could risk a surplus of 1.52 million tonnes next year according to analysts at HSBC, who saw prices averaging $1,653 a tonne next year, $1 off the the median of price predictions.

The median tin surplus of 5,000 tonnes in 2009 is seen flipping into a deficit of 1,500 tonnes in 2010. The zinc surplus is expected to moderate to just 12,000 tonnes in 2010 from 212,000 in 2009.

The lead market balance was seen shrinking to 22,000 tonnes of excess production in 2010 from 72,000 tonnes this year.

To download an excel file of the poll results, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/Base_July_2009.xls