FACTBOX-Revisions to precious metals price forecasts

Published: 15 Mar 2009 18:03:35 PST

LONDON, March 13 - Bullion pushed above $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20 for the first time in 11 months, climbing with support from rising fears over the stability of the global financial system and increasing inflation in the longer term.

Falling demand in a recessionary environment is weighing heavily on the more industrial precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, however.

Below are recent price forecasts for precious metals spot prices.

BNP PARIBAS (MAR 11)

* BNP Paribas said it expects gold to average $900 an ounce in 2009, rising to $950 an ounce the following year. It sees prices initially weakening, before rising strongly in the fourth quarter of 2009.

* The bank sees gold at $905 an ounce in the first quarter, $860 in the second, $865 in the third quarter and $970 in the final quarter of 2009.

* "The safe haven appeal of gold is likely to be sustained, driving ETF and physical demand higher," the bank said.

* "However, the weakness of industrial and jewellery demand, on one hand, allied with higher scrap supply on the other, is likely to provide a cap on prices during the first half of the year," it added.

NUMIS SECURITIES (MAR 12)

* Numis Securities raised its 2009 gold price forecast to $900 an ounce from $700 previously, citing risk aversion, the prospect of a weaker dollar and fears global stimulus measures could cause inflation.

* The broker also upped its 2010 and 2011 gold price view to $850 an ounce from $750 previously.

* "Gold as an investment vehicle and quasi-currency remains relatively buyoant, supported by continued risk aversion from investors," it said in a note.

* "The massive global monetary and fiscal stimuli, including U.S. and UK quantitative easing, may result in a shift from a potentially deflationary environment to an inflationary one," it said.

UBS (FEB 23)

* UBS raised its one-month gold forecast to $1,050 an ounce from $900 and its three-month price view to $1,100 from $900, after gold prices rallied through $1,000 an ounce on Feb 20.

* The bank also said it sees platinum at $1,100 an ounce on a one-month basis and $1,150 over three months.

* "Platinum should trade higher along with gold, but this is no reason to buy platinum as the risks to platinum long positions are higher than for those in gold during any correction," it said.

* Silver is seen at $15.75 in one month and $17.00 in three months, and palladium at $200 and $210 on a one-month and three-month basis respectively.

STANDARD BANK (FEB 19)

* Standard Bank expects gold prices to average $1,000 on a one-month basis, $950 over three months and $1,050 over six months. It sees silver at $14.50, $13.50 and 14.00 in the same periods.

* Platinum prices will trade at $1,050 over one month, $1,000 over three months and $1,050 over six months, it said.

* Over one year, the bank sees gold at $940, silver at $12.00 and platinum at $1,250.

* "The disconnect between gold and the rest of the commodities complex has increased yet further. Fear, uncertainty, and concerns over the potential for currency devaluation amidst the global economic crisis have seen gold surge in spite of the stronger dollar," it said.

RBC CAPITAL MARKETS (FEB 19)

* RBC Capital Markets said it expects gold to average $850 an ounce in 2009, rising to $875 an ounce next year. Silver will average $11.00 an ounce in both 2009 and 2010.

* The firm sees gold at $900 in the long term, and silver at $12.50.

* It expects platinum to average $1,100 an ounce this year, rising to $1,200 an ounce in 2009. Its long term platinum forecast is $1,400 an ounce.

CANACCORD ADAMS (FEB 18)

* Canaccord Adams raised its peak price scenario for gold to $1,100 an ounce from $950. In 2009 it sees the metal averaging $975, falling to $900 in 2010 and $800 in 2011.

* The brokerage expects silver to average $13.50 in 2009, $13.75 in 2010 and $14.00 in 2011.

* "Overall global financial market conditions remain weak and we believe the safe haven flight to gold can continue," it said.