Q+A-How arms sales to Taiwan will impact Sino-U.S. ties

Published: 27 Jan 2010 01:57:00 PST

BEIJING, Jan 27 - The United States is poised to sell more arms to Taiwan this year following the recent release of air defence missiles to the island, moves that would further strain already tense Sino-U.S. relations.

China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since 1949, when Mao Zedong's forces won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists fled to the island. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary.

Taiwan says it needs U.S. arms to update its military as China aims 1,000 to 1,500 short-range to mid-range missiles at the island just 160 km (100 miles) away at the closest point.

Here are some questions and answers about the arm sales issue.

WHAT ARMS SALES ARE IN THE PIPELINE?

The Pentagon is likely to release the final phase of a Patriot missile sale approved as part of a larger $6.5 million package in 2008. Part of the sale was cleared on Jan. 6.

It is also expected to begin the process of selling Black Hawk utility helicopters to Taiwan and agree to a study on whether Washington could upgrade Taiwan's submarine fleet.

Taiwan has asked for dozens of F-16 jet fighters, a model the island's military already uses, but the United States has shown little sign of moving on this item.

HOW WILL CHINA REACT?

China would loudly protest new arms sales. After the Patriot missile deal was approved this month, Beijing announced it had successfully tested emerging military technology aimed at destroying missiles in mid-air.

Beijing called the Patriot sale an intrusion into Chinese internal affairs and that it threatened to undermine Sino-U.S. ties. The two sides are already at odds over currency, trade and Internet censorship issues.

China's "red line" would be the sale of F-16s, said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief with Defense News, meaning it would take action against the United States.

China might, for example, decide to reduce cooperation with the United States on a number of important international issues such as Iran's nuclear programme, cancel official visits or freeze military-to-military exchanges.

This month, a Chinese Vice Admiral even suggested putting sanctions on U.S. firms that sell arms to Taiwan.

WHY DOES WASHINGTON KEEP SELLING ARMS?

Washington is home to a vibrant pro-Taiwan lobby, which wants the United States to beef up assistance for democratic Taiwan.

Accusations China intentionally keeps its currency undervalued and tramples on religious or other freedoms fuel pro-Taiwan sentiment among U.S. lawmakers, as well.

Washington, though it recognises "one China" and backs Beijing over Taipei diplomatically, is also obligated under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to help defend the island. Taiwan has long seen the United States as its staunchest ally.

"There are legal issues and there are moral issues involved," said Bruce Jacobs, an Asian studies professor at Monash University in Australia.

HOW DO U.S. SALES CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER?

Analysts say the balance of military power between China and Taiwan is shifting decisively towards Beijing, leaving the island few options without U.S. aid in the event of attack.

Taiwan needs more advanced air and naval defences to counter the modernising Chinese armed forces.

Even with these new weapons, analysts say that without rapid, massive U.S. help, a concerted Chinese assault on Taiwan would eventually succeed.