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INTERVIEW-Moody's sees fragile stabilising in EZ sov credits

Published: 06 Nov 2009 00:57:36 PST

BRUSSELS, Nov 6 - A fragile stabilisation in euro zone sovereign credits is emerging after a tough year rocked by the global economic crisis, Moody's sovereign credit officer Pierre Cailleteau said on Friday.

"We're seeing a stabilisation but for the most advanced economies, the AAAs, there are still questions over the medium term," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a bond conference in Brussels.

"The situation has deteriorated so much that we're in a kind of fragile stabilisation and a lot is going to depend on ... the growth prospects for those economies. We've ... moved to a time of a rather fragile stabilisation."

Among triple-A rated countries, he said Moody's classified the United States and Britain as resilient.

"Their credit matrix has significantly deteriorated, but we think they'll be able to rebound by either more growth or more fiscal adjustments. This is the case of the U.S. and the case of the UK."

On the UK, he said: "There is a consensus in the population for the need to tighten the budget. So in all likelihood this is going to happen, so we don't want to downgrade a country we think over the next five years ... will be forced to bring public finances back to (a) safe triple-A range."

On Greece, which is on review for a possible downgrade, he said: "We have some concerns about the ability to generate a rate of growth over the next 10 years and a level of fiscal adjustment that will keep the debt at the current level."

"We think the odds are there are going to be further slippages over the next five years or so. We're reviewing and it's going to be pretty rapid."


Source: Reuters

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