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Aussie rebounds with commodities, eyes retail data

Published: 03 Nov 2009 18:02:35 PST

--------------(Snapshot at 8:00 a.m./2100 GMT)----------------- FOREX (vs Late Sydney) DEBT FUTURES (Night Session) <AUD=>

0.9031 (0.9021) 90-DAY <YBAc1> (DEC) 95.89 (95.92) <AUDEUR=R> 0.6137 (0.6100) 3-YR <YTTc1> (DEC) 94.94 (95.01) <AUDJPY=R> 81.58 (81.41) 10-YR <YTCc1> (DEC) 94.43 (94.525) <AUDNZD=R> 1.2525 (1.2487) US10-YR <US10YT=RR> 3.47 (3.42) --------------------------------------------------------------- AU$S/Term range *Support *Resistance *RSI-14 *MA-10 *MA-20 *0.8900/9250 *0.8915 *0.9090 *43.942 *0.9127 *0.9123 ----------------------------(Nov 4)----------------------------

* Australian dollar <AUD=D4> offshore range $0.8917-0.9036.

* Aussie rallies on the back of stronger commodity prices, recouping losses suffered Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by an expected 25 basis points and sounded less hawkish than some had bet.

* Aussie rebounded early Wednesday to $0.9030, having dropped as low as $0.8916 before bouncing from an eight-month-old upward trend channel for the second straight day.

* Aussie helped by a surge in gold <XAU=> to record highs of $1,088.40 [GOL/], while oil rose over a dollar to $79.35 <0#CL:>. The CRB index rose 1.09 percent even as the U.S. dollar gained.

* Also supported by widening interest rate differentials after the RBA's hike to 3.5 percent on Tuesday, putting rates far above most major economies.

* The health of data reports this month could determine whether the RBA tightens in December as well, starting with key data on retail sales and building approvals at 0030 GMT

* Sales are forecast to have grown 0.4 percent in October, but to have dipped 0.4 percent for the whole quarter when adjusted for inflation. <ECONAU> Any weakness in the month would be a surprise since the RBA has said sales should hold up.

* September building approvals are expected to have risen 2.5 percent, helped by low mortgage rates and government grants for new-home buyers.

* Other key events to watch is the outcome to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to reaffirm its policies to support the economy. The Fed will issue a statement at 1915 GMT. [ID:nFEDAHEAD]

* Aussie's softness on Wednesday also due in part to a firmer U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar hit a one-month high after disappointing results from UBS <UBSN.VS> and a shake-up of UK banks Lloyds <LLOY.L> and Royal Bank of Scotland <RBS.L>.

* Bond futures pared Tuesday's gains, tracking Treasuries where investors were building a concession for coming supply.

* Three-year bond futures <YTTc1> indicated down 0.06 points to 94.94. The ten-year contract <YTCc1> was indicated down 0.075 points to 94.43.

* December interbank futures eased 0.015 points to 96.355, giving an implied rate of 3.645 percent. This means investors are betting on a 60 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate rise next month.


Source: Reuters

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