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EM ASIA FX-Won, ringgit lead gains, intervention fears linger

Published: 22 Oct 2009 22:51:10 PST

* Won jumps but is still off its 13-month high hit last week

* Ringgit, Singapore dollar track euro's strength vs U.S. dlr

* Intervention a concern as Asian currencies strengthen

SINGAPORE, Oct 23 - The South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit jumped on the dollar's broad weakness on Friday, but their gains were capped by lingering concerns about renewed interventions to curb currency rises.

The beleaguered U.S. dollar extended its weakening streak, hitting its latest low for the year against the euro as the market took aim at options barriers.

WON

The won jumped 1 percent to 1,178.5 per dollar, buoyed by the dollar's broad weakeness and rising local stocks.

Investors remained concerned about possible official dollar-buying intervention to temper the gains.

"But we see less panic in the market today as the the spot is still of the high," said a Singapore-based trader.

The authorities have intervened in recent weeks to slow the rise in the won, which hit a 13-month high last Thursday.

"I think we have seen strong short-squeeze in things like dollar/won, but there is appetite from longer-term guys to get risk back on," said Kayvon Alexander, strategist at Societe Generale.

Analysts believe Asia's central banks will keep intervening near term to curb currency strength to help exporters, but they may change tack in 2010 to rely on currency appreciation to contain inflation.

RINGGIT

The ringgit gained 0.6 percent to 3.3748 per dollar, taking its cue from euro's jump vs the dollar, as investors await the 2010 budget.

"I think we follow the direction of dollar/majors and dollar/regionals rather than any domestic leads," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

A source told Reuters on Thursday that the government plans to announce a much bigger-than-expected cut in its 2010 budget deficit.

"A reduction in the deficit to within 5.5-6.5% is very positive for the ringgit and plays into a curve flattening for the yield curve," said Suresh Ramanathan, strategist at CIMB Investment Bank.

The ringgit was set to fall 0.3 percent this week, reversing from a 0.8 percent rise in the previous week and a 2 percent jump in the week ended Oct. 9 -- the sharpest week gain this year.

Meanwhile, three-month dollar/ringgit NDFs edged up to 3.3835, implying a 0.1 percent ringgit fall from the spot, reversing from the implied 0.1 percent rise on Thursday.

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

The Singapore dollar also followed the euro higher against the U.S. currency, gaining a fifth of a percent to 1.3906 per U.S. dollar, but concerns about intervention capped its upside.

"All the move depends on the euro," said a trader.

"Investors are all more cautious on Friday and not taking big positions," added the trader.

The Singapore dollar's weekly gain is pick up slightly to 0.2 percent this week from 0.1 percent last week, which compared to the 1.3 percent rally in the week ended Oct. 9 -- the strongest performance since May. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change on the day at 0608 GMT Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen 91.66 91.39 -0.29 Sing dlr 1.3917 1.3930 +0.09 Taiwan dlr 32.396 32.403 +0.02 Korean won 1179.80 1190.00 +0.86 Baht 33.45 33.46 +0.03 Peso 47.06 47.20 +0.30 Rupiah 9475.00 9485.00 +0.11 Rupee 46.43 46.74 +0.66 Ringgit 3.3800 3.3960 +0.47 Yuan 6.8275 6.8292 +0.02 Change so far in 2009 Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move Japan yen 91.66 90.60 -1.16 Sing dlr 1.3917 1.4340 +3.04 Taiwan dlr 32.396 32.860 +1.43 Korean won 1179.80 1259.50 +6.76 Baht 33.45 34.80 +4.04 Peso 47.06 47.52 +0.99 Rupiah 9475.00 11000.00 +16.09 Rupee 46.43 48.71 +4.91 Ringgit 3.3800 3.4500 +2.07 Yuan 6.8275 6.8230 -0.07


Source: Reuters

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