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Global ad spend improving in H2 -report

Published: 19 Oct 2009 00:18:05 PST

LONDON, Oct 19 - Global advertising fell more than expected in the first half of the year but the downturn could be bottoming out, a leading media agency said on Monday.

ZenithOptimedia said global ad expenditure in 2009 would drop 9.9 percent following the poor first half, compared with a predicted fall of 8.5 percent made in July.

"However, this downgrade almost entirely relates to first-half activity," the agency said in a report. "Since then improvements in economic confidence have been accompanied by positive signals from media owners that the downturn is bottoming out.

"We are still confident that the second half of the year will be much less painful for the ad market than the first half, and expect the market to hit bottom before the end of 2009."

Another media network, Carat, said in October it also expected global ad spend to fall almost 10 percent in 2009 before a return to slight growth in 2010.

Zenith said it now forecast a recovery in 2010 of 0.5 percent, down from its earlier forecast of 1.6 percent growth, with developing markets leading the way with 7.8 percent growth.

Developed markets, which are defined as north America, Western Europe and Japan, are forecast to shrink another 2.9 percent.

For 2011, Zenith expects 4.3 percent global growth, with developed markets showing a 1.5 percent recovery and developing markets growing 9.8 percent.

Of the different platforms, the Internet is the only medium expected to expand, with 9.2 percent growth forecast for 2009, while all other media is set to shrink.

The report said newspapers and magazines were in steep decline, with newspaper ad expenditure set to fall 17 percent this year, and magazine spend down 20 percent.

"By 2011 we forecast newspaper ad expenditure to be 25 percent below its 2007 peak, while magazine ad expenditure is 28 percent below its own peak," the report said.

"Prospects for other media are more encouraging: we expect television, cinema and outdoor advertising to return to growth in 2010, followed by radio in 2011."