ANALYSIS-Resurgent German unions relish bigger political clout

Published: 17 Sep 2009 21:04:02 PST

* German unions enter election in strong position

* Unions hostile to Merkel's preferred coalition partner

* Organised labour boosted by resurgent youth interest

BERLIN, Sept 17 - Once called "the true plague in Germany" by the man Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to form a government with, trade unions could be a major nuisance to the pair's plans for pro-business reform in the next parliament.

Germany holds a federal election on Sept. 27, and polls show Merkel could form a centre-right coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) -- whose leader Guido Westerwelle may soon regret the unflattering analogy he made about unions in 2005.

"Public opinion on unions has turned, and support is high," said Michael Vester, a political scientist at the University of Hanover. "Unions will have a lot of influence during talks on forming the next coalition -- probably more than last time."

After seeing their power wane for years, unions have stopped the rot, freshened up their image and mobilised youth at a time when politicians are struggling to win new supporters.

Union bosses are likely to use access to government behind the scenes to press for higher welfare spending and stymie plans to cut back job protection laws -- a notable goal of the FDP.

Unions have wasted no opportunity to link corporate excess to the FDP, a tactic which has endeared it to young voters sceptical about capitalism's role in the financial crisis.

"The FDP wants to smash the welfare state to bits," Berthold Huber, head of IG Metall, Germany's biggest union, said this month. "Whoever wants this deserves an immediate red card."

Still, no party has suffered more than the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), traditional defenders of union interests, who at present rule in a grand coalition with Merkel's conservatives.

Anger with the SPD over welfare cuts it made under previous chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has fragmented the left, pushing many trade unionists towards new, more radical groupings.

This year, Germany's biggest trade union, IG Metall, raised eyebrows by refusing to endorse the SPD for the election.

Many saw this as a nod to rising support in the union for a new far-left party, Die Linke or The Left -- as well as an attempt to reach out to a broader swathe of the electorate.

PRAISE FROM CHANCELLOR

The SPD's profile has been further blurred by four years in power with their conservative rivals, raising voter apathy and leaving the door open to unions to play a bigger role.

Unions have responded by throwing their weight behind popular initiatives like a national minimum wage, raising jobless benefits and tightening financial market regulation.

"Unions have taken advantage of their role as an independent political grouping," said Josef Esser, a political scientist at the University of Frankfurt. "And this has helped them."

Membership figures suggest that Germany's biggest unions are now in a stronger position politically than they have been for years -- at least relative to the main parties.

The SPD now has barely half as many registered members as it had back in 1976. By contrast, the number at IG Metall has fallen since then by just over 10 percent to 2.3 million -- a bigger membership than all parties in parliament combined.

Only the Left Party, whose labour market policies overlap with union positions, has seen membership rise continuously.

German policy makers are taking notice.

Last month Merkel invited union leaders to a summit and praised them for their role in the crisis, which saw them lobby for a number of stimulus plans later adopted by the government.

Beyond actively influencing the policy response, organised labour has also helped broker deals to rescue struggling firms, prompting IG Metall's Huber to suggest unions take shareholdings in some of Germany's best known brand names.

YOUTH ACTIVISM

Germany's biggest unions held numbers steady in 2008, aided by an infusion of new blood. Youth membership -- aged 27 and under -- at IG Metall rose over six percent to a new record.

Vester at Hanover University said unions had been much quicker to see the need to rejuvenate their ranks, which has given them extra clout in the run-up to the election.

"The parties are very worried about losing the younger generation. But they're not doing anything to address this," he said. "That's the difference between them and the unions."

Youth campaigns backed by major unions have drawn huge support across the country in recent months.

In June, students all over Germany took to the streets to demonstrate for better education. Organisers say more than a quarter of million people took part in the protests.

Earlier this month, close to 50,000 flocked to Frankfurt for an IG Metall rally headlined by Irish rocker Bob Geldof, where the union lambasted the centre-right's plans for reform.

"Whatever coalition we end up with after the vote, young people are going to step up their campaigns towards the end of the year," said Eric Leiderer, head of the union's youth wing.

Perhaps the most notable example of efforts to create a political mandate for organised labour is IG Metall's survey "Gemeinsam fuer ein Gutes Leben" (Together for a good life).

Since its April launch, the union says nearly half a million people have taken part in the survey, whose findings IG Metall used as a basis for election demands it published this week.

"Unions have got stronger and could become even stronger," said Esser at Frankfurt University. "But this will ultimately depend on whether economic and social conditions improve."