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FOREX-Euro near 2009 highs as USD resumes struggle

Published: 14 Sep 2009 21:24:18 PST

* Euro extends gains, in sight of 2009 high of $1.4652

* Fears of U.S.-China trade war fade

* Aussie awaits RBA minutes for clues on rates

SYDNEY, Sept 15 - The euro climbed in early trade on Tuesday, staying in sight of its 2009 highs, supported by growing talk that Asian central banks were bidding the single currency and moving away from U.S. dollars.

Firmer stock markets <.SPX> and higher commodities also underpinned higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which reversed some of their previous day's losses.

The euro <EUR=> rose to $1.4633 from $1.4618 late in New York trade on Monday, when it struck a fresh 2009 high of $1.4652. The dollar index <=USD> was 0.09 percent lower at 76.586, not far from a one-year low of 76.457 struck late last week.

Chartists say the index is now below any Fibonacci support and could fall to 2008 lows of around 70.70.

"Strong trends remain in place for the euro, Australian and and kiwi dollar," National Australia Bank said in a note. "Even dollar/yen has all-round signals to the downside. These signals only confirm the overall downside risk in place for the U.S. dollar."

The dollar had got some fillip in Asian trade on Monday amid concerns about increased protectionist actions and retaliation from rising trade tensions between the United States and China. But that quickly faded into the background. [nSP459289]

The dollar also eased against the yen <JPY=> to 90.85 yen, from 90.94 yen late on Monday when it gained nearly 0.3 percent. It bounced in the previous session after investors reversed short positions, probably options-related and on the back of a sharp rise in 10-yr Treasury yields.

A steady drop in Treasury yields in the past few weeks had surprised many and and triggered speculation that the U.S. dollar was also fast becoming the preferred funding currency for carry trades.

"Signs of a recovery alongside rock-bottom interest rates in the U.S. would continue to weigh on the dollar index," said David Watt senior currency strategist at RBC Capital.

Meanwhile, the yen showed little reaction to media reports that incoming Japanese leader Yukio Hatoyama has picked lawmaker Hirohisa Fujii as the next finance minister.

Fujii is 20-year veteran of the finance ministry and the appointment is likely to soothe investor concerns that the new government will inflate an already huge public debt. [ID:nT190562\]

Market focus now shifts to a slew of U.S. data that will be released between Tuesday and Thursday and which could determine whether or not the dollar will continue to trade lower or pause.

U.S. retail sales for August and September Empire State manufacturing are due later in the session while Fed Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at 1400 GMT. Comments from two senior Federal Reserve officials on Monday indicated that the an economic recovery might be less than robust. [nN14339526]

In Europe, German ZEW index is due while in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its last board meeting at 0130 GMT.


Source: Reuters

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