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UPDATE 2-BOJ Suda signals may call for ending unorthodox steps

Published: 08 Sep 2009 21:54:04 PST

* BOJ hawk says role of corporate fund-support measures fading * Says should not underestimate drawbacks of special measures * Other BOJ policymakers seen cautious on ending the measures

NAGASAKI, Japan, Sept 9 - Bank of Japan board member Miyako Suda said the role of the bank's unconventional measures was lessening as credit strains ease, suggesting she may favour letting them expire in December.

Many other board members appear cautious about letting the BOJ's commercial paper and corporate bond purchasing programmes expire due to lingering doubts over the economic outlook.

But Suda, seen as holding hawkish views on monetary policy, said leaving them in place could also pose problems.

"We should not underestimate the drawbacks of the unconventional measures," she said in a speech to business leaders in Nagasaki in southern Japan on Wednesday.

Suda also warned of the risk of maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy for too long, saying that long-term interest rates may rise if doubts over fiscal discipline emerge.

In July, the BOJ extended its special measures aimed at dealing with a credit crunch, such as its commercial paper and corporate bond purchases, until December.

But the three-month extension was shorter than the six months markets had expected, as credit market conditions improved after being hit severely by the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September.

Suda said that with credit markets on the mend, the drawbacks of the BOJ's special measures may outweight the benefits if kept in place too long, suggesting that she could call for them to end on schedule in December.

The BOJ's buying of commercial paper has pushed interest rates on such debt so low that some issuers have been able to borrow funds even more cheaply than the government. Its recent offers to buy CP have attracted few bids, in another sign markets no longer need this support.

But many market players expect the central bank to keep at least some of these measures in place beyond December as a safety net for corporate finance, and leave interest rates at 0.1 percent at least until March 2011.

"Suda's views on the extraordinary measures aren't likely to gain traction at the BOJ," said Simon Wong, regional economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

"Given deflationary pressures, I think these measures are still necessary. When you look at CPI, things are clearly worse than the BOJ expected."

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) fell at the fastest annual pace on record in July, potentially putting pressure on a reluctant BOJ to rein in deepening deflation.

Central banks around the world have begun debating how and when to phase out emergency steps taken to contain the damage wrought by the worst global crisis in decades, but most are not expected to do so until well into next year.

The Federal Reserve, which has set its benchmark interest rate at virtually zero, has been focusing on driving down other borrowing costs by buying mortgage-related debt and U.S. government bonds.

The European Central Bank is also buying bonds backed by mortgages or public-sector borrowing and has held its main interest rate at a record low of 1 percent.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS

Suda said Japan's economy was steadily heading towards a pick-up but added that the outlook remained highly uncertain as growth was driven largely by exports and government stimulus spending.

She also said that while recent price falls in Japan were within expectations, the BOJ in the near-term needed to guard against the risk of deflation accelerating more than forecast.

That meant that regardless of the fate of the BOJ's unorthodox steps, the central bank needed to keep interest rates near zero for now, she said.

Revised figures on Friday are expected to confirm that while Japan's economy emerged in April-June from its worst recession since World War Two, recovery will be slow and far from assured as much of it depends on stimulus measures.

The BOJ is already forecasting two years of deflation and is likely to extend that to three when it issues its twice-yearly economic outlook report in October.

Suda, a former economics professor, was the sole opponent of the BOJ's decision in January to buy corporate bonds from banks, arguing that such a step would do little to ease credit strains brought about by the global financial crisis.


Source: Reuters

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