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EM ASIA FX-Won leads decline, intervention seen in peso

Published: 11 Aug 2009 21:55:40 PST

* Won at 3-week low on dollar covering, volatilities rise

* Peso falls with stocks as dollar-buying intervention seen

* Investors dump risky assets ahead of Fed's policy decision

SINGAPORE, Aug 12 - The South Korean won led a decline in Asian currencies on Wednesday as investors sold regional stocks ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with the Philippine peso also hurt by suspected intervention.

The Fed is likely to keep key interest rates near zero after it wraps up its two day policy meeting later in the day, but investors are awaiting its assessment of the economy and whether it will unwind some of the unconventional easing measures currently in place.

WON

The won <KRW=> dipped 1 percent to 1,252.8 per dollar, a three-week low, as falling local stocks prompted investors to cover short dollar positions, but traders expected the won to resume its appreciation over the longer term.

"There has been a bit of panic short-covering," said a Singapore-based dealer who believed the won's rising trend should stay unless it weakens past the 1,300 level.

Meanwhile, one-month implied won volatilities <KRWVOL> rise to 15.5 percent from 13.7 percent on Tuesday as the sharp fall in the spot won sparked some unwinding of positions.

PESO

The peso <PHP=> fell 0.4 percent to 47.92 per dollar, weighed down by falling stocks <.PSI> as traders suspected official dollar-buying intervention.

"BSP (the central bank) has been heavily buying dollars in the past few days and the market may be caught short today," said a dealer in Manila. "The break of 47.84 resistance has opened the way for a test of 48.00 and subsequently 48.10 in the coming days."

Some traders suspected dollar bids by agent banks near 47.80 early on Wednesday.

In recent weeks, central banks in Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines have been suspected of intervening to cap the rise of their currencies to help struggling local exporters.

Thailand's markets were shut on Wednesday for a public holiday.

Meanwhile, three-month offshore dollar/peso NDFs <PHPNDFOR=> rise to 48.28, implying a 0.8 percent peso fall from the spot compared to 0.6 percent on Tuesday. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change on the day at 0535 GMT Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen 95.54 95.94 +0.42 Sing dlr 1.4484 1.4483 -0.01 Taiwan dlr 32.875 32.855 -0.06 Korean won 1247.20 1239.10 -0.65 Peso 47.90 47.71 -0.40 Rupiah 9935.00 9910.00 -0.25 Rupee 48.14 47.96 -0.38 Ringgit 3.5230 3.5080 -0.43 Yuan 6.8351 6.8350 -0.00 Change so far in 2009 Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move Japan yen 95.54 90.60 -5.17 Sing dlr 1.4484 1.4340 -0.99 Taiwan dlr 32.875 32.860 -0.05 Korean won 1247.20 1259.50 +0.99 Baht 34.02 34.80 +2.29 Peso 47.90 47.52 -0.79 Rupiah 9935.00 11000.00 +10.72 Rupee 48.14 48.71 +1.18 Ringgit 3.5230 3.4500 -2.07 Yuan 6.8351 6.8230 -0.18


Source: Reuters

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