China's recovery to continue in H2 - economist

BEIJING, July 22 - The Chinese economy is unlikely to double-dip in the second half as export growth will pick up even as the impact of stimulus spending weakens, a government economist said in remarks published on Wednesday.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the State Information Centre, told the China Securities Journal that China's exports would fall less sharply in the fourth quarter of this year and might even turn positive on a year-on-year basis towards the end of 2009.

He cited improving data in the United States, Japan and Europe, which would increase demand for Chinese goods.

The depreciation of the yuan's effective exchange rate in the last four months, increased export tax rebates and rising export prices would also help to boost shipments, he added.

"China's exports may recover swiftly in the fourth quarter due to the base effect, and their drag on economic growth will ease," Zhang said.

He said the rapid execution of newly started infrastructure projects meant government-backed capital spending would keep growing in the second half, while private investment would increase as corporate earnings improved.

"It cannot be ruled out that economic growth will see small swings in some months. But in terms of the trend, the acceleration will continue," he said. * For more stories on China's economy, click [CN-MCE-RTRS-LEN]