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Aussie dlr bounces to 2-wk highs as risk in vogue

Published: 19 Jul 2009 22:52:49 PST

* Aussie at 2-wk highs vs US$, yen on earnings hope

* Bond futures at multi-week lows as safe-haven flows ebb

SYDNEY, July 20 - The Australian dollar hit two-week highs against a weaker yen and U.S. dollar on Monday, with a few bright spots in U.S. corporate earnings keeping equities buoyant and offering support for riskier currencies.

The Aussie jumped to a high of $0.8087 <AUD=D4>, a level last seen on July 2, and up from $0.8006 seen late Friday.

It rose on the yen to a two-week high of 76.61 <AUDJPY=>, hoisting it well above its 20-day moving average of 75.49, and from Friday's 75.05.

"Everything at the moment is pointing to lower risk aversion in a nutshell, and there is no reason at the moment to be selling the Aussie," said Francisco Solar, a trader at Easy Forex. "A v-shaped recovery is being priced in," he said, referring to expectations for a sharp economic recovery.

But some analysts warned that markets may be overly optimistic, saying the spate of decent U.S. corporate earnings were a result of reduced spending and investment, rather than a recovery in demand.

"The headline numbers mask what is really taking place," said Patrick Bennett, an analyst at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. "That is, lower costs achieved through shedding labour and delaying capex, plus meeting orders out of inventory."

Still, improved risk appetites sapped demand for safe havens such as government debt and slugged Australian bond futures.

Three-year bond future <YTTc1> shed 0.16 points to a three-week low of 95.31, while ten-year bond futures <YTCc1> lost 0.185 points to 94.415 points, the lowest in over two weeks.

Solar said some stop-losses for short positions on the Aussie are seen around $0.8080-$0.81, and this means the currency could move sharply higher if those levels are breached.

But he said the local dollar may run into firm resistance at around $0.8150 because traders suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may sell the currency around those levels.

The RBA said last week it sold a record A$1.94 billion ($1.56 billion) of Aussies on a net basis on the spot foreign exchange market in June, backing views among some investors the Aussie is over-valued at current levels.

Asian stock markets jumped on Monday, with the MSCI index of equities outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> hitting a new high for the year as investors took heart from some decent earnings reports from U.S. bellwether firms including IBM <IBM.N>. [MARKETS/AS]

That helped to overshadow worrying spikes in credit-related losses at U.S. banks Bank of America <BAC.N> and Citigroup <C.N>. ---------------(Snapshot at 4:20 p.m./0620 GMT)---------------- FUTURES CASH YIELD 90-DAY BILL 90-DAY BILL<YBAc1> (SEP) 96.77 (-0.01) AU3MBB=RR 3.11 (3.14) 3-YR BOND <YTTc1> (SEP) 95.31 (-0.16) AU3YT=RR 4.58 (4.41) 10-YR BOND <YTCc1> (SEP) 94.415(-0.185) AU10YT=RR 5.75 (5.56) AUD/USD <AUD=> 0.8080 (0.8006) US10YT=RR 3.69 (3.55) ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUD VS 2-YR 10-YR *AUD 3-YR/10-YR SPREAD USD +306 (+294) +206 (+201) *FUTURES +0.895(+0.875) CAD +286 (+271) +226 (+213) *AUD 2-YR/10-YR SPREAD NZD +25 (+14) -4 (-19) *CASH +167 (+165) ----------------------------------------------------------------


Source: Reuters

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