US unions confident of passing organizing measure

* Unions say organizing law to be introduced soon

* Opponents say move ill timed given recession

* Democratic senators in Wal-Mart's home state said to be wavering

CHICAGO, March 4 - Big U.S. labor unions expressed confidence on Wednesday that they have enough votes in Congress to pass long-blocked legislation to boost their organizing efforts, while opponents said they do not.

"We're confident we haven't lost any support from the successful effort two years ago -- or near-successful," said Bill Samuel, the AFL-CIO's legislative director in a conference call from the labor coalition's winter meetings in Miami.

The legislation, the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), was first introduced in 2003 and easily passed the Democrat-led U.S. House of Representatives in 2007 but was eight votes shy of the 60 votes in the Senate needed to end debate and prevent a procedural block by Republicans.

Then-President George W. Bush had also promised to veto the legislation.

But President Barack Obama, a former community organizer and a Democrat who won powerful support from organized labor in last year's election, has long indicated he favors the bill.

The legislation is expected to be reintroduced soon by congressional Democrats. But a multimillion-dollar war of words is already under way through lobbying and media campaigns, including television ads featuring workers talking up unions.

EFCA will permit a company's workers to unionize if a majority simply sign a card, rather than by the current practice of a vote by secret ballot -- a process that unions have said allows employers to intimidate workers.

Under EFCA, once a union is established the employer has 90 days to reach a contract or face mediation. Failing that, an arbitrator imposes contract terms.

Vice President Joseph Biden was scheduled to address the Miami meeting of AFL-CIO executives on Thursday and may cement the administration's backing of the act.

After decades of decline, union membership has fallen to 7.6 percent of U.S. private sector workers from 25 percent in the early 1980s. The 1981 strike by air traffic controllers and the firing of more than 11,000 of them by Republican President Ronald Reagan is often cited as contributing to the decline.

But unions have been heartened by Obama's election and see the legislation as essential to "level the playing field" with employers.

Union backers say EFCA will boost the economy by lifting up wage-earners who tend to spend more of their paychecks.

A BROADSIDE

But business groups argue the EFCA will trigger a wave of wage inflation and increase costs at a time when the economy and businesses can least afford it.

Justin Wilson of The Center for Union Facts interest group called it "a broadside against every business in America."

Nevertheless, the AFL-CIO's Samuel said on Wednesday the legislation's lead sponsors in both houses of Congress will introduce it within "days, or at most weeks," and predicted the Senate will pass it by at least the 60 votes needed to overcome Republican roadblocks.

Wilson said the vague timing indicated support for the bill was fraying.

He said both of Arkansas' Democratic senators, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln, as well as Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu were wavering.

Lincoln, who represents the home state of nonunion retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc, has suggested the timing of the legislation may be wrong given the recession, but has left herself room to support it.

Senator Arlen Specter, the lone Republican Senator to back the act previously, is now uncommitted, Wilson said.

Specter is under pressure from conservatives in his party after being one of just three Republicans to vote for the economic stimulus bill.

Samuel said his "worst-case scenario" counts on Specter's and all the Democrats' votes, as well as Democrat Al Franken prevailing in the still-undecided Minnesota U.S. Senate race.

"Their confidence is misplaced," Wilson said.