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SOFTS-Coffee dips on origin sales, sugar consolidates

Published: 21 Jul 2009 16:58:04 PST

* Two analysts see raw sugar breaching 20 cts/lb

* Coffee seen overbought after Monday's rally

LONDON, July 21 - Robusta coffee futures fell on origin selling on Tuesday, while sugar and cocoa consolidated as traders took stock of a Reuters television interview in which two analysts said raw sugar could scale new peaks.

Robustas dropped on producer selling and on a chart-led correction to Monday's strong performance, dealers said.

"It possibly went up a little too far, too quickly," a coffee trader said. "We're probably due a bit of a pull-back."

London's September robusta futures fell $11 to $1,502 per tonne at 1411 GMT, having hit a 5-week high of $1,535 on Monday.

New York's September arabica contract was flat at $1.2230 per lb.

Coffee sales in top robusta producer Vietnam picked up this week after domestic prices, tracking gains in London futures, jumped by more than 7 percent in the past week, dealers said.

Sugar hovered below June's three-year peaks as the two analysts said raw sugar could potentially exceed 20 cents per lb, depending on the extent of weather-related disruptions to supply in Brazil and India.

An erratic monsoon in India after a slow start, and recent rains during harvesting in the centre-south of Brazil, the world's leading sugar exporter, have dominated traders' attention lately.

Raw sugar futures hit a 25-year high of 19.73 cents per lb in February 2006 and have not since tested that level.

ICE October raw sugar futures were up 0.13 cent at 17.87 cents per lb at 1412 GMT. Benchmark raw sugar hit a three-year high of 18.09 cents per lb on June 30.

Sudakshina Unnikrishnan of Barclays Capital told Reuters television: "There's absolutely no reason for prices not to be able to breach that psychological barrier of 20 cents per lb."

"You are having some serious questions being asked over what (will be the) level of sucrose in sugar, and whether Brazilian mills are having to delay crushings because of the rains."

Lindsay Jolly, a senior economist with the International Sugar Organization (ISO), said: "I see it (prices) heading further upwards."

Jolly, noting he was giving his personal view, not that of the London-based ISO, added: "I don't see why prices can't go beyond 20 cents per lb for a short period, depending on how much disruption there is in India or Brazil."

COCOA CONSOLIDATES

ICE and London cocoa futures were little changed after touching 5-month and 15-week peaks respectively on Monday, and dealers saw risks of a downside correction.

"There's a slight smell of 'over-boughtness'," one London-based dealer said, adding he saw support in London December cocoa at 1,801 pounds and resistance at 1,869.

"The name of the game is consolidation."

London's December cocoa contract rose 15 pounds to 1,833 pounds per tonne in slim volume of 1,820 lots, having hit a 15-week high of 1,840 pounds on Monday.

New York's September cocoa futures rose $5 to $2,873 per tonne.

Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached around 1,077,600 tonnes by July 19, exporters estimated on Monday, compared with 1,273,330 tonnes in the same period of the previous season.


Source: Reuters

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