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TABLE-Spec longs in US oil, commods jump as dollar falls

Published: 24 May 2009 17:29:36 PST

NEW YORK, May 22 - Speculators seeking a hedge against the weakening dollar dove into oil and other inflation-sensitive raw materials, sending up for a second straight week the net futures length across U.S. commodity markets, trade data released on Friday showed.

Non-commercial investors, or speculators, were holding nearly 10 times more net long contracts that were betting on higher prices in crude oil for the week ending May 19, compared with the week to May 12, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

The CFTC numbers also indicated that the total net length across 15 U.S. commodity markets was up 10 percent that week, extending the previous week's rise of nearly 25 percent.

U.S. crude <CLc1> prices hit six-month highs above $60 a barrel this week, inflated by the plunging dollar as well as confidence amongst some investors that the worst of the recession may be over.

Other commodities that saw strong gains in net length included gold, which many see as the best hedge against a weak dollar.

Open interest across the 15 markets, fell 1 percent, indicating that some speculators who had been short, or betting on lower prices, had closed out their positions as prices rallied. OPEN INTEREST <1CFTC00> Contract May 19 May 12 Wk Change End-Q1 End-Q4 End-Q3 US Crude 1,093,976 1,246,806 -12.3% 1,148,687 1,169,215 1,092,411 RBOB 230,487 211,652 8.9% 198,386 194,464 170,701 Heat Oil 260,622 258,406 0.9% 251,583 226,522 203,017 Natural Gas 680,523 686,113 -0.8% 624,397 671,730 881,561 Gold 367,931 359,517 2.3% 368,618 300,448 336,598 Silver 96,079 96,546 -0.5% 94,506 85,312 103,812 Copper 105,791 108,470 -2.5% 94,572 74,252 78,214 Cocoa 118,806 115,755 2.6% 109,979 116,641 124,494 Sugar 708,649 687,013 3.1% 690,705 642,954 705,350 Coffee 137,013 133,300 2.8% 142,245 122,856 137,031 Cotton 137,287 137,523 -0.2% 140,318 125,564 195,316 Wheat 300,924 299,792 0.4% 314,959 247,329 287,417 Corn 877,421 858,911 2.2% 811,140 802,641 1,035,355 Soybeans 422,416 408,703 3.4% 316,690 278,773 357,108 Soybean Oil 221,583 210,437 5.3% 208,168 212,598 246,774 TOTAL 5,759,508 5,818,944 -1.0% 5,516,953 5,271,299 5,955,159 NET FUTURES LENGTH <1CFTC00> Contract May 19 May 12 Wk Change End-Q1 End-Q4 End-Q3 US Crude 35,237 3,066 32,171 6,546 64,548 40,093 RBOB 56,074 56,077 -3 50,248 52,334 21,079 Heat Oil 20,136 20,136 0 22,348 5,470 8,892 Natural Gas -135,210 -131,737 3,473 -122,458 -144,814 -177,606 Gold 149,584 138,877 10,707 154,859 125,961 117,786 Silver 28,225 24,500 3,725 20,587 19,795 18,336 Copper -18,808 -18,739 -69 18,525 -19,445 -16,169 Cocoa 11,903 13,814 -1,911 22,364 20,109 10,815 Sugar 171,478 171,704 -226 140,650 82,539 106,025 Coffee 24,615 20,292 4,323 9,119 -11,659 1,591 Cotton 23,238 21,996 1,242 -1,019 1,526 -186 Wheat 6,218 5,102 1,116 -11,664 -4,802 -8,569 Corn 170,008 150,880 19,128 99,716 45,625 168,690 Soybeans 119,430 116,815 2,615 40,336 26,177 48,948 Soybean Oil 23,163 26,555 -3,392 -7,026 -14,674 11,174 TOTAL 685,291 619,338 65,953 406,081 248,690 350,899 NET INDEX LENGTH IN SOFTS & GRAINS <4CFTC00> Contract May 19 May 12 Wk Change End-Q1 End-Q4 End-Q3 Cocoa 14,570 15,662 -1,092 14,738 15,500 20,146 Sugar 195,702 194,891 - 811 188,953 221,002 300,182 Coffee 34,180 34,397 -217 32,449 33,953 50,815 Cotton 58,974 59,650 -676 59,798 63,304 87,574 Wheat 135,029 133,601 1,428 133,988 131,835 162,264 Corn 271,709 268,139 3,570 246,830 239,557 305,839 Soybeans 126,685 123,139 3,096 110,054 93,979 130,092 Soybean Oil 48,339 49,907 -1,568 45,215 42,923 69,075 TOTAL 885,188 879,836 5,352 832,025 842,053 1,125,987


Source: Reuters

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