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WRAPUP 1-3 U.S. restaurant chains beat views, but bottom elusive

Published: 12 Feb 2009 00:51:10 PST

* Chipotle Q4 EPS 52 cts; Wall St view 48 cts

* Buffalo Wild Wings Q4 EPS 43 cts; Wall St view 39 cts

* P.F. Chang's Q4 ADJ EPS 31 cts,; Wall St view 26 cts (Adds results, new store forecast, byline)

LOS ANGELES, Feb 11 - Three U.S. restaurant operators, including burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill reported quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, but analysts warned the hard-hit industry had not found a bottom.

Sales at restaurants have softened and even tumbled as diners grappled with vanishing personal wealth and credit, the housing crises and rising unemployment.

Operators are closing weak outlets, paring labor and other costs and slashing plans for new restaurants.

"There were positive surprises all around. It doesn't mean the business trends are any better, but they're doing a good job where they can," RBC Capital Markets analyst Larry Miller said.

"Buffalo Wild Wings was outstanding. Chipotle was good relative to what a lot of us thought. P.F. Chang's did a good job on cost controls, though they are suffering a lot worse fate on the top line."

Shares of Buffalo Wild Wings climbed more than 25 percent, and Chipotle rose nearly 20 percent in after-hours trade and P.F. Chang's gained almost 2 percent at the end of regular trading.

Chipotle's fourth-quarter net income fell to 52 cents a share as price increases helped cushion eroding sales, but beat analysts' expectations for 48 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates. ID:nN11398522

Sports-themed Buffalo Wild Wings Inc fared better, posting a 28.7 percent rise in fourth-quarter net income to 43 cents a share versus expectations for 39 cents, helped by stepped-up promotional offers and other efforts. nBNG433108

Sales at the company's established restaurants were up 4.5 percent at company-owned locations and 2.5 percent in franchised locations.

Morgan Keegan analyst Destin Tompkins said the company's business is finding favor with diners who are shying away from higher-priced eateries.

"The value proposition is attractive there and it's relatively affordable entertainment for the consumer," he said.

TOPPING EXPECTATIONS

At Chipotle, a burrito chain known for serving premium-priced, naturally raised meats, quarterly profit fell 3.2 percent to $17 million, as price increases helped cushion eroding sales.

Sales at established restaurants rose 3.5 percent at Chipotle, while operating margins declined a bit.

But Chief Financial Officer John Hartung said Chipotle's days of raising prices without pushback from diners appear to be on the wane.

"Given the economic environment, we have seen resistance to the most recent price increases," Hartung said.

At P.F. Chang's China Bistro,, which has exposure to markets hit by home foreclosures, like California and Arizona, same-store sales fell 7.1 percent during the quarter at the namesake outlets and declined 6.1 percent at Pei Wei, its newer quick-serve restaurants. nN11526755

The company's decline of 22.9 percent in fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations to 31 cents a share exceeded Wall Street's view of 26 cents.

Executives said business at its namesake Bistro restaurants was off 10 percent in December.

Tom Forte, an analyst with Telsey Advisory Group, said some investors were hoping that same-restaurant sales may have hit bottom after industry leader Darden Restaurants Inc -- owner of chains like Olive Garden and Red Lobster -- said October marked the low point in its most recent quarter.

"Some people hoped that October was the bottom. The fact that Bistro (comparable same-store sales) were negative 10 (percent) in December suggests that we haven't hit bottom," Forte said.

Buffalo Wild Wing's stock jumped to $27.50 from its Nasdaq close of $21.91, while shares in Chipotle rose to $52 from their close of $47.42 on the New York Stock Exchange and P.F. Chang's stock closed up 1.9 percent to $17.92.


Source: Reuters

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