UPDATE 1-Thai Oil posts Q4 loss, outlook better

* Quarterly loss widens as falling oil prices hit inventory

* Profit to rise in 2009 thanks to lower inventory losses

* Plans bond sales, to pay 1 baht dividend on April 22 (Adds analysts, bond sale, dividend)

BANGKOK, Feb 13 - Thailand's top refiner, Thai Oil <TOP.BK>, reported a second consecutive quarterly loss on Friday, as expected, due to falling crude prices that hit inventories, but analysts forecast an improvement this year.

Thai Oil, 49 percent owned by energy giant PTT <PTT.BK>, posted a net loss of 8.4 billion baht ($239 million) for October-December versus a year-earlier profit of 3.5 billion.

Full-year profit slumped to just 224 million baht from 19.2 billion baht in 2007.

"Net profit will pick up in 2009 up as it will be unlikely to incur an oil stock loss as it did last year," said Charnvut Taecha-amorntanakij, an analyst with Ayudhya Securities.

The broker gave a "buy" rating on the stock, which was up 4 percent at 26.00 baht at 0325 GMT, while the main Thai index <.SETI> was up 1.12 percent.

"The worst is over for Thai Oil. And the full-year net profit of 224 million baht is better than we expected," Seamico Securities said in a note.

The company had posted a 5.8 billion baht loss in the third quarter, its first quarterly loss since listing in 2004.

Ten analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a fourth-quarter net loss of 8.08 billion baht and a full-year profit of between 136 and 923 million baht.

The refiner, which ran at full capacity of 275,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter, said its inventory losses in the fourth quarter amounted to 12.6 billion baht.

Its gross refining margin excluding oil stocks was $7.9 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $4.7 a year earlier and $3.4 in the third quarter, it said.

Analysts said the quarterly loss was mainly due to the booking of a huge inventory loss as the benchmark Dubai crude oil price dropped to $41 a barrel by the end of the quarter.

At the end of the third quarter, Dubai crude was at $96 a barrel, the company has said.

It said it planned to sell up to $500 million of bonds in domestic and foreign markets to refinance debt and get reserves for business expansion.

It will pay a dividend of 1.00 baht on April 22 for the second half, bringing the full-year dividend to 2.75 baht. ($1 =35.15 Baht)