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Aussie dollar eases as stocks struggle, eyes RBA

Published: 18 Nov 2008 17:34:10 PST

__________AUSTRALIAN CREDIT/FOREX (0100 GMT) SNAPSHOT__________ FOREIGN EXCHANGE (against previous Sydney close) <AUD=> 0.6457/59 (0.6467/69)<AUDNZD=R>1.1764/75 (1.1731/53) <AUDJPY=R> 62.30/36 (62.47/53) <JPY=> 96.52/56 (96.61/66) <AUDEUR=R> 0.5115/18 (0.5124/29)<EUR=> 1.2618/22 (1.2614/18) DEBT FUTURES CASH YIELDS 90-DAY BILL<YBAc1> (DEC) 95.690(+0.040) <AU3MBB=RR> 4.63(4.62) 3-YR BOND <YTTc1> (DEC) 96.220(+0.050) <AU3YT=RR> 3.76(3.85) 10-YR BOND <YTCc1> (DEC) 95.105(+0.075) <AU10YT=RR> 4.90(4.99) 3/10 SPREAD +1.115 (+1.135) AUST/US 10-YR SPREAD +137(+133) S&P/ASX 200 3452.2 (3523.2) US10-YR <US10YT=RR> 3.53(3.66) __________________________ Nov 19______________________________

DATA: New vehicle sales dropped 0.5 percent in October, the fourth straight month of falls leaving sales down a sharp 10.6 percent for the year. Still, the monthly drop was not as bad as many had feared and nothing like as weak as in the U.S. _______________________________________________________________

* The Australian dollar drifted lower on Wednesday as Asian shares failed to follow a rally on Wall Street, and investors cautiously awaited speeches from top central bankers here. * RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks on "The Economic Situation" at 8:35 p.m. (0935 GMT). He is preceded by Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey speaking on "The Economy in Late 2008: Conditions and Prospects" at 2:50 p.m. (0350 GMT).

* Analysts are hoping for guidance on how much they might cut interest rates at the December policy meeting, though events are moving so fast that the comments might have a short shelf-life.

* The bill market is already pricing in a cut of at least 75 basis points in the 5.25 percent cash rate, and further drastic easing to 3.5 percent next year, so it might be vulnerable to a pullback if the governors are less than outright bearish.

* The Aussie was hovering around $0.6457 <AUD=>, having backed off an early $0.6521 high as the Nikkei <.N225> eased despite a late bounce on Wall Street <.SPX>.

* Support seen around $0.6350 and the possibility of more intervention from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is putting a floor under the currency for the moment.

* Aussie also edges down to 62.30 yen, from an early 63.34 high, but support seen around 61.75 yen <AUDJPY=R>.

* Overall, sentiment remains bearish on the Aussie given the prospect of global recession -- there were more dismal housing data out of the U.S. on Tuesday [nN18202597] -- and the expectations of more aggressive rate cuts here.

* Australian bond futures traded firmer, buoyed by a strong performance from U.S Treasuries which saw two-year yields touch their lowest levels since 2003.

* Three-year bond futures <YTTc1> rose 0.050 points to 96.220, while the 10-year contract added 0.075 to 95.105.



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