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2nd UPDATE: China's Nov Exports Fall As Global Trade Slows

Published: 11 Dec 2008 02:04:41 PST

(Adds more economists' comment, data breakdowns.)


BEIJING --China's exports fell for the first time in more than seven years in November while imports dropped sharply, reflecting the severity of the slowdown in global trade.

The worse-than-expected trade figures indicate countries looking to China to help rescue the world economy from a prolonged slump may be disappointed. They also raise pressure on Beijing to do more to stimulate growth in the world's fourth-largest economy.

China's exports dropped 2.2% in November from a year earlier to $114.99 billion, the first monthly decline since June 2001, data issued by the General Administration of Customs showed Wednesday.

Exports changed course after a 19.2% increase in October. The latest reading was in stark contrast to the median forecast of 15% growth in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 13 economists.

"This is a shock figure," said Ben Simpfendorfer, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland. He said the rate of contraction in China's exports will worsen in the following months, predicting exports may fall as much as 10% to 15% for a period.

Imports in November plummeted 17.9% from a year earlier to $74.9 billion, their first decline since February 2005. Imports had risen 15.6% in October, and economists had expected growth of 12% in November.

In the first 11 months of this year, exports of machinery and electrical products, which accounted for 58% of total exports during the period, rose 20% to $761.32 billion, a slowdown from their 23.2% rise in the first 10 months of the year. Single-month breakdowns weren't immediately available.

Imports of equipment used in the assembly of products for export slumped 51.5% in November, following a 19% drop in October, likely reflecting plunging consumer demand in Western markets. That is potentially bad news for countries, including in those in Asia, that are major suppliers of such goods to China.

The growth in China's exports to major trading partners fell in the January-November period, compared with the January-October period.

Exports to the E.U., China's largest trading partner, grew 21.8% in January-November, easing from January-October's 24.5% rise. Exports to the U.S., the country's second-largest trading partner, rose 9.6% in the 11-month period, slowing from the 11.4% increase in the 10-month period.

The CNY4 trillion economic stimulus plan recently announced by Beijing won't likely be able to offset the contraction in export growth, nor will it be able to tackle the negative knock-on effects on the manufacturing sector of the unfolding global recession, Moody's said in its Global Sovereign China Report issued Wednesday.

Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu said the whole world, including China, is experiencing "the biggest demand shock in many years," but added China's "real fundamental economy is better than current trade data indicators suggested."

He said some of the downturn in demand is because of falling global consumption, but most of it could be due to the collapse in the global financial system, which provides liquidity and credit to international trade.

China's trade surplus rose to a record $40.09 billion in November, exceeding the previous record of $35.2 billion in October. The trade surplus for the January-November period totaled $255.95 billion.

In the January-November period, China's exports totaled $1.317 trillion, up 19.3% from a year earlier, while imports grew 22.8% to $1.061 trillion, customs data showed.


-Liu Li contributed to this story, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 6588 5848; li.liu@dowjones.com






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