PREVIEW-Japan carmakers' Q4 to plumb lows, 09/10 seen worse

* Toyota, Nissan, Mazda seen expanding losses in 09/10

* Consensus sees Honda posting first-ever loss in 09/10

* Suzuki, Daihatsu seen in black on firm microcar demand

* Forecasts could sway on govt incentives schemes

TOKYO, April 27 - Japanese automakers are set to report dismal quarterly results and are bracing for a deeper fall in the year ahead as sales in the key U.S. market show no hint of recovery and the yen hovers at stronger levels than last year.

With monthly U.S. sales at multi-decade lows, Toyota Motor Corp, Nissan Motor Co and Mazda Motor Corp are seen making bigger annual losses in the year to March 2010, while Honda Motor Co is seen falling into its first-ever loss, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.

The only companies expected to escape red ink among the eight domestic carmakers are Suzuki Motor Corp and Daihatsu Motor Co, which rely heavily on Japan's relatively steady microcar segment and, in Suzuki's case, on emerging markets such as India.

But analysts expect carmakers' annual projections to leave out any calculations of a boost in demand if the United States and Japan adopt incentives to scrap old cars for new ones, meaning there could be room for an overshoot.

"Company earnings estimates and market projections are set for a persistent stream of upward revisions if the majority of the earnings recovery we envisaged in 2010/11 is frontloaded into 2009/10," JPMorgan analyst Takaki Nakanishi wrote in a report.

On the other hand, the fate of General Motors Corp and Chrysler as they approach a deadline to present survival measures could skew the results too, leaving uncertainty for their Japanese rivals.

"The outcome could ultimately have a major impact on the U.S. economy and demand," Credit Suisse analyst Koji Endo said.

Chrysler has until April 30 to clinch a deal to join up with Italy's Fiat SpA or face bankruptcy, while GM is up against a June 1 deadline to reach concessions with its union and bondholders.

COST CUTS

Profitability would also depend on how far automakers get with efforts to cut fixed costs, through shortened work hours, pay cuts and other measures, as well as negotiations with steelmakers to reduce materials prices.

Scrappage incentives, if adopted in the United States, will also impact carmakers differently.

Because legislation under consideration targets incentives for cars built locally, Honda and Nissan are likely to get relatively bigger tailwinds because they build more than 70 percent of their cars sold in the United States in the region, analysts said. Toyota's local production ratio is around half, while Mazda imports most of its cars.

In an ironic twist, Honda could emerge as a bigger beneficiary because it has lagged rivals in working down its inventory of unsold cars. Some others could face a supply shortage if demand suddenly spikes with the rollout of scrappage incentives, UBS analyst Tatsuo Yoshida said.

Many automakers, including Mazda and Mitsubishi Motors Corp, are facing a shortage of cars in some European markets since scrappage schemes were introduced this year.

For January-March, the fourth quarter of Japan's business year, consensus estimates have Toyota's operating loss at 689 billion yen ($7.1 billion), Honda's loss at 332 billion yen and Nissan's at 271 billion yen as they have pulled production back drastically to shrink bloated inventory.

Suzuki is expected to post a slight operating profit, of 3.4 billion yen, while Mazda's loss is seen at 62 billion yen.

Honda is set to announce its results on Tuesday, Toyota on May 8, Suzuki on May 11 and Nissan and Mazda on May 12. ($1=97.15 Yen)