UPDATE 1-Russian car sales collapse in Jan, outlook gloomy

* Russian car sales fall 33 percent

* AEB forecasts sales to fall 40 percent in 2009

* GAZ fails to meet put option on rouble bond

* GM restarts Russian test assembly lines after two months (AEB confirms figures, adds detail and background)

MOSCOW, Feb 12 - Sales of new cars in Russia plunged 33 percent in January, a leading business group said on Thursday, and predicted sales will tumble by 40 percent this year as Russia enters recession and cheap car loans dry up.

Data from the Association of European Businesses (AEB) showed a total of 116,899 cars were sold in January, including imported and Russian vehicles, down from 174,488 in January 2008 and 44.5 percent down from 210,293 in December.

"The combination of a global downturn and restricted availability of credit are clearly having an impact on the Russian market," said David Thomas, AEB's Automobile Manufacturers Committee Chairman.

AEB forecast total 2009 sales at 1.9 million vehicles, down from the 3.2 million, worth $69 billion, sold in 2008.

Russia had seemed firmly on its way to permanently overtake Germany as Europe's top car market this year before the availability of car loans dwindled and a fall in personal incomes undercut demand at the end of 2008.

Russia's government plans to spend $350 million on car purchases for officials this year and another $57 million on subsidising interest on loans for cheap cars, mainly the ubiquitous Lada cars produced by domestic giant AvtoVAZ, but has so far refrained from bailing out producers.

"The crisis on the domestic auto market is deepening... The massive support to the domestic auto industry has not been provided yet," VTB bank said in a note predicting that imports of foreign car were set to suffer most this year.

Almost all global car makers have opened or announced plans for factories in Russia during recent years of impressive growth but plans are now being scaled back.

Troika Dialog brokerage said in a note the recent 35 percent devaluation of the rouble should start supporting Russian car makers in the medium term.

As local firms have yet to start benefiting from the weaker rouble, AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest car maker, saw its sales dive 38 percent to 29,100 vehicles. (See table below)

Sales among foreign brands like Chevrolet, Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Opel, Kia, Renault, Mitsubishi and Suzuki fell 30-50 percent. Sales at Ford, in third spot after AvtoVAZ and Chevrolet, fell 18 percent to 7,952 vehicles while some Japanese brands and more expensive European cars showed resilience.

Honda, Mazda, Subaru and BMW sold only a few cars less, Mercedes-Benz offloaded a few more and Porsche, Lexus, Jaguar and Volvo posted strong growth.

Russia's second largest car producer GAZ showed one of the sharpest falls of 60 percent.

GAZ is controlled by aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska, who amassed billions of dollars of debt to fuel growth but has struggled to repay some debts and lost some assets.

GAZ failed to pay bondholders who presented its rouble paper for buyback under a put option, the bond organiser said on Thursday

GAZ, like many other car makers in Russia, has already suspended assembly lines.

General Motors said on Thursday it had restarted test assembly lines at its plant in St Petersburg after a nearly two-month suspension.

BRAND Jan 09 Jan 08 percent LADA 29,110 46,624 -38 Chevrolet* 10,011 13,753 -27 Ford 7,952 9,753 -18 Toyota 7,327 10,639 -31 Hyundai 6,567 12,698 -48 Nissan 6,251 8,563 -27 Opel 3,811 5,802 -34 Honda 3,660 3,750 -2 Kia 3,635 6,446 -44 Mazda 3,481 3,762 -7 Peugeot 3,288 2,027 62 Renault 3,253 5,691 -43 GAZ commercial vehicle 3,089 8,655 -64 VW 2,882 2,077 39 Skoda 2,787 2,280 22 Mitsubishi 2,274 4,544 -50 Suzuki 1,294 2,017 -36 Fiat 1,235 864 43 Subaru 1,068 1,140 -6 Citroen 948 479 98 BMW 901 931 -3 Land Rover 769 1,060 -27 Lexus 743 598 24 Volvo 707 434 63 Mercedes-Benz 642 630 2 Infiniti 577 340 70 Audi 513 907 -43 Jaguar 85 35 143 Porsche 71 62 15 -------------------------------------------------- Total 116,899 175,063 -33 -------------------------------------------------- * Chevrolet sales include GM-Avtovaz joint venture.

NOTE - To see a full list of foreign car sales in Russia, click http://www.aebrus.ru/committees/industrial/automobile/

- Source: AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee.