Pork price hike won't trigger inflation: analysts

By Li Qiaoyi

The country's pork prices continued their upward trend recently, but the increase isn't expected to cause high inflation, analysts said yesterday.

Women buy meat at a produce market yesterday in South China's Guangdong Province. Pork prices have been rising for the last six weeks. Photo: CFP

The average retail prices of lean pork reached 15.3 yuan ($2.24) a kilogram, rising steadily since late June, according to data released yesterday by the Beijing Xinfadi Farm Product, a wholesale market.

The price hike is not limited to Beijing. Pork has seen a surge in prices on a national scale.

Pork prices have risen a total of 15.8 percent for nine straight weeks as of August 12, according to data published by the Ministry of Agriculture.

The current hike is self-corrective, since the price of pork has remained low for quite some time, said Han Jun, director of the Research Department of Rural Economy under the Development Research Center of the State Council, adding that it would not lead to inflation.

Pork prices have declined approximately 20 percent over the previous year, but still are within the normal range, said Han.

The recent increase in pork prices is just temporary. They won't continue to rise after September, said Guo Huiyong, an analyst following animal husbandry from the Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant.

There were about 450 million live hogs and 48 million breeding hogs in China as of the end of June.

However, under the present circumstances, the country's demand for live hogs cannot be expected to surpass 400 million this year, Guo believed.

The government has launched special stockpiling programs to allow for more flexibility in the face of pork price fluctuations, said Ding Shengjun, a researcher with the State Administration of Grain.

Ding thought the price rise could help improve the animal husbandry industry, which would further boost domestic demand.
 

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