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SOFTS-Markets dip in quiet trade on consolidation

Published: 04 Nov 2009 17:30:09 PST

* Sugar dips but outlook bullish

* Coffee and cocoa mark time (Recasts, updates prices, market activity to close; adds second byline, dateline, previously LONDON)

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 4 - Soft commodity futures closed slightly lower on Wednesday as markets consolidated in quiet trade, but the outlook for sugar remained upbeat because of bullish fundamentals for the sweetener, analysts said.

The rest of the complex was quiet, they said.

New York's March raw sugar contract SBH0> dropped 0.38 cent to end at 23.59 cents per lb. London's December white sugar contract declined $2.10 to end at $591.70 per tonne.

"The fact that (sugar) is able to hold...is impressive," said Jack Scoville, an analyst for brokers The Price Futures Group in Chicago.

He said the softs complex may be waiting for a statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve later on Wednesday to assess its impact on the U.S. dollar, which has provided direction for most of the market the past few sessions.

Raw sugar has rallied to 28-1/2-year highs as the worst annual monsoon rains in 37 years in India produced a poor cane crop in the leading consuming country, while excessive rains hindered the harvest of top sugar producer/exporter Brazil.

Indian Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said the country will consume up to 7.0 million tonnes more sugar than it will produce in 2009/10 and even after imports, there is a shortfall of 3.0 to 4.0 million tonnes.

"I think the backdrop is still bullish and I think the market has taken note of what is happening in India," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon.

Heavy rains in Brazil will result in almost 10 percent of the cane crop in the main center-south region being left unharvested this year and more rain is expected from Nov. 6 to 15.

Another source of consumer buying is that Pakistan said it will import 500,000 tonnes of raw sugar and 500,000 tonnes of refined sugar.

David Sadler of Sucden cautioned though that there have several attempts to break 24 cents in New York, but this has not happened yet.

"The dollar again looks quite weak so further advances should be seen but there is doubt that this will encourage physical offtake," he said, noting some investors may opt to take profits as the market approaches previous highs.

COFFEE LOSES GROUND AND COCOA MIXED

Firm outside markets nudged coffee up. The market took note of scarce rainfall in major producer Colombia and disruption of the harvest in top robusta producer Vietnam.

London's November robusta coffee contract lost $6 to end at $1,408 per tonne. New York's December arabica coffee contract shed 0.35 cent to close at $1.4075 per lb.

Cocoa futures were mixed, with the market cautiously monitoring the harvest pressure emanating from leading producer Ivory Coast.

Scoville said many investors are "bulled up" on cocoa and investment funds could drive the market higher.

Ofon took note of Ivorian bean arrivals and the need for more evidence that demand has recovered after a downturn linked to the global economic recession.

London's March cocoa contract rose 3 pounds to end at 2,180 pounds per tonne. New York's December cocoa contract fell $2 to finish at $3,272 per tonne.

The spot cocoa contract has fallen back since touching a 30-year high on October 23 at $3,412.

"The lack of price action in cocoa today reflects most people spending more time on the spot at the moment, rather than anything else," Marcelo Dorea, a partner with hedge fund Round Earth Capital in New York, said.

He said plenty of cocoa is being graded for delivery on ICE Futures U.S. and that demand has been weak.


Source: Reuters

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