ANALYSIS-US, Brazil soy exports may clash in early 2010

* Record-slow US soy harvest, Brazil seeding ahead of pace

* Supply overlap may impact Jan, Feb soy export shipments

* Brazil soy crushers may outbid exporters for early soy

CHICAGO/SAO PAULO, Oct 21 - Rain delays to the U.S. soybean harvest and a likely early harvest in Brazil have set the stage for a clash between the world's top two soybean suppliers over global demand in early 2010.

The United States normally dominates the world soybean market from about October through March, at which point Brazil and Argentina, the No. 3 exporter, typically take control with their lower priced and newly-harvested supplies.

Any meaningful shift from that pattern will depend on the pace of U.S. harvest, Brazilian crop development weather, and demand from China, the world's top soy buyer, analysts said.

"Logistics and harvest delays in the U.S. may in some cases result in the permanent loss of business if the early season stuff doesn't get shipped and (importers) find that they can live without it," said Anne Frick, analyst with Prudential Bache Commodities.

U.S. farmers have been battling harvest-stalling rains this autumn to bring in the largest crop on record to help satisfy record-high export demand.

Meanwhile, exceptionally tight supplies and record demand from China have elevated prices in the global soybean market, raising the incentive for Brazilian farmers to rush a new crop to market as soon as possible.

Some Brazilian farmers, aided by good early planting season rains, are seeding faster-maturing yet lower yielding soybeans, hoping to capture premium prices for January and February deliveries.

"It remains to be seen whether the Brazilian beans will move in force early enough. It could take a bit of the edge off the U.S. exports, but that's totally unknown at this point," Frick said.

SLOW START TO US EXPORTS

The smallest stockpile of U.S. soybeans in 31 years and the slowest harvest pace in 24 years have kept U.S. exporters scrambling to fill their heavy early-season commitments.

U.S. soybean export sales for the 2009/10 marketing year, which began on Sept. 1, are already 76 percent ahead of last year's pace, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data.

Analysts said exports, projected by USDA at a record 35.52 million tonnes in 2009/10, will be shipped heavily in the first half of the marketing year before the next South American crop floods the market.

Soy export inspections -- amounts loaded on ships for delivery to buyers -- have jumped recently and are ahead of last year's pace, but analysts said they need to be stronger to meet the heavy export sales commitments on the books.

Meanwhile, a sluggish harvest increases the risk that some of those export sales could be canceled, the analysts said.

EARLY BRAZIL PLANTING

Some Brazilian farmers are speeding production to capture the higher prices that processors and exporters are willing to pay before the main thrust of harvest floods the market.

Seeding in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top soy producing state and the first state to plant, is 23 percent completed as of Oct. 16, up from 10 percent at the same point last year, analysts Celeres said this week.

In one region of Mato Grosso, 30 percent of the crop was planted with very early maturing soybeans and 50 percent was planted with early maturing beans, said Kory Melby, a grains consultant in the center-west state of Goias.

"I think by Jan. 10, Mato Grosso will have 500,000 tonnes harvested; by Jan. 20, 1 million; Jan. 30, 2 million," he said. "That first 500,000 tonnes will arrive at the marketplace two weeks earlier than normal."

However, several some analysts said pent up demand from domestic processors in Brazil could limit the flow of early-harvested soybeans to export channels, minimizing any overlap with the U.S. export season.

"Brazil just won't have that much soy to sell on the international market at that time," said Antonio Sartori, chief trader at Brasoja in Rio Grande do Sul, the No. 3 soy state.

"The local market will keep the early-harvested soy at home by offering better prices than the ports at the time of harvest. We are talking about the big crushers, the animal feeds, and biodiesel markets."